Vira BALABUKH.

REGIONAL FEATURES OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE TERNOPIL REGION AND POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE MIDDLE OF XXI CENTURY.

The article describes regional features of climate change in the Ternopil region in the modern period, on the background of global climate change. Identified regional features of change thermal moisture and wind regime, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events s in the period from 1961 to 2010. Made their analysis and determine the significance of observed changes and indicated the assessed likelihood. Received the projected changes climatic characteristics and extreme weather conditions in the Ternopil region for 2021-2050 years regarding modern climate period (1981- 2010 years) for the SRES A1B. Assessed value and the probability of expected changes. By the middle of the 21st century in the region can be expected to increase in air temperature throughout the year, especially in winter and autumn, longer warm period, summer season and the summer recreation period. It is very likely that heat waves will occur with a higher frequency and duration and will fewer cold temperature extremes. Winter can become more moist and warm, its duration will decrease. Higher temperatures could lead to an increase in the growing season of different cultures, changing precipitation patterns, and increased the frequency of severe weather events. Annual amount precipitation change is insignificant, but they can be considerable heterogeneity throughout the year.

Keywords: regional climate changes; dangerous phenomena of weather; extreme weather; climate change projections, SRES A1B.

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