POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS IN THE TERNOPIL REGION IN THE XXI CENTURY.
Develop possible scenarios of climatic conditions on the territory of the Ternopil region in the XXI century using one of the major modern instruments for climate change for the long term – ensembles of regional climate models. The study prepared by the statistical characteristics of the main climatic parameters – multi-year average monthly and annual values of air temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Calculations of regional climate models were calculated to determine the optimal ensembles for the near (2011-2030 years), middle (2031-2050 years) and long (2081-2100 years) perspective, and to be determined in relation to a reference period of 1991-2010 the modern years. Analysis of possible changes in relative humidity showed that this characteristic for the XXI century. have the lowest values in the warm , and the biggest – in the cold season. During the period of the nearest future, and by mid-century the annual variation of the relative humidity is characterized by a minimum in April (72%) and maximum in January (86%). During distant future maximum shift in December (86%), and the minimum expected in July (70%). Annual average relative humidity during all periods will be 78%. Conducted and presented research has allowed a quantitative scenario of possible changes in key climatic characteristics in the Ternopil region in three 20-year periods of the future. The obtained results can be widely used at the regional level in the planning of economic development of the region and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation measures for climate-dependent industries and other industries in the region.
Keywords: climate change, climate Ternopil region, regional climate models.
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